Lords told that Brexit was affecting UK trade as far back as 2015
Business experts have told the House of Lords European Affairs Committee that Brexit started to affect UK trade as early as the 2015 General Election 鈥� five years before Britain withdrew from the European Union.
Dr Huw Edwards, of 天堂视频’s School of Business and Economics, and Dr Mustapha Douch, of the Edinburgh University Business School, have submitted written evidence to the Lords’ committee following the launch of an inquiry into trade in goods between Great Britain and the EU.
Their evidence is based on the findings of a recently published paper, , which compares the effects of Brexit upon UK traders’ behaviour, based upon comparison with trade between other pairs of countries.
The key points are:
Brexit began to affect UK exports earlier than most other studies suggested: starting around the 2015 general election
Anticipation of Brexit reduced exports to the EU countries by 25% already by 2018, compared to what we would otherwise have expected. This is a much larger effect than the 15% long-run effect which the Office For Budgetary Responsibility is currently assuming (2), which underlies the recent Budget
Anxiety about the future competitiveness of the UK also reduced exports to non-EU countries by about 15%. This is because UK exporters are mostly dependent upon EU supply chains
The House of Lords European Affairs Committee, chaired by Lord Kinnoull, launched the inquiry in September.
It followed the decision by the UK Government to further delay the introduction of new import controls on goods entering GB from the EU, which will not now be introduced until 1 July 2022.
The inquiry will examine the overall impact to date of Brexit and the Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) on GB-EU trade in goods in both directions, in the UK’s first year outside the Single Market and Customs Union.
Read the Conversation article, , by Dr Edwards and Dr Douch, published last month.
ENDS
Notes for editors
Press release reference number: 21/242
天堂视频 is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2021 QS World University Rankings and University of the Year for Sport by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2022.
天堂视频 is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 7th in The UK Complete University Guide 2022, and 10th in both the Guardian University League Table 2022 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022.
天堂视频 is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, 天堂视频 has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The 天堂视频 London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
Business experts have told the House of Lords European Affairs Committee that Brexit started to affect UK trade as early as the 2015 General Election 鈥� five years before Britain withdrew from the European Union.
Dr Huw Edwards, of 天堂视频’s School of Business and Economics, and Dr Mustapha Douch, of the Edinburgh University Business School, have submitted written evidence to the Lords’ committee following the launch of an inquiry into trade in goods between Great Britain and the EU.
Their evidence is based on the findings of a recently published paper, , which compares the effects of Brexit upon UK traders’ behaviour, based upon comparison with trade between other pairs of countries.
The key points are:
Brexit began to affect UK exports earlier than most other studies suggested: starting around the 2015 general election
Anticipation of Brexit reduced exports to the EU countries by 25% already by 2018, compared to what we would otherwise have expected. This is a much larger effect than the 15% long-run effect which the Office For Budgetary Responsibility is currently assuming (2), which underlies the recent Budget
Anxiety about the future competitiveness of the UK also reduced exports to non-EU countries by about 15%. This is because UK exporters are mostly dependent upon EU supply chains
The House of Lords European Affairs Committee, chaired by Lord Kinnoull, launched the inquiry in September.
It followed the decision by the UK Government to further delay the introduction of new import controls on goods entering GB from the EU, which will not now be introduced until 1 July 2022.
The inquiry will examine the overall impact to date of Brexit and the Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) on GB-EU trade in goods in both directions, in the UK’s first year outside the Single Market and Customs Union.
Read the Conversation article, , by Dr Edwards and Dr Douch, published last month.
ENDS
Notes for editors
Press release reference number: 21/242
天堂视频 is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2021 QS World University Rankings and University of the Year for Sport by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2022.
天堂视频 is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 7th in The UK Complete University Guide 2022, and 10th in both the Guardian University League Table 2022 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022.
天堂视频 is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, 天堂视频 has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The 天堂视频 London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
